Predictions for Collector's Market MKII ?

[sowsley]

There was a car show this weekend in Vallejo, CA,
"Motoring J Style". Headline" Toyotas and Honds, rare and expensive, sub-headline, Forget about Ferraris, this show's all about Japanese cars. Part of the writeup of the show in the SF Chronicle:

"Spielberg's car will be on show Saturday at the "Motoring J Style" event at the Solano County Fairgrounds in Vallejo.

The show's promoter is David Swig, son of Martin Swig, who is well known in the Bay Area as a former auto dealer in San Francisco and, these days, as the czar of the annual "California Mille" -- a weeklong drive around Northern California in the kind of fine old classic and antique European and American cars that the Japanese car show in Vallejo would disdain.

"When I came of driving age," David Swig said, "the cars I could afford were older Japanese cars and so I always had a special place in my heart for those cars.

"In the cultural world of cars, there's always been the core of collectors who are into Porsche, Ferrari and Duesenberg," Swig said. "But the Japanese have the Datsun 510 and 240Z, or the Toyota Celica and Supra. These have inspired a whole group of people who are not the ones you see at the Monterey Historic Automobile Races," one of the events held during the annual August car festival on the Monterey Peninsula that includes the prestigious Pebble Beach Concours d'Elegance."

There was a thread a few years ago about the collectability of Supra's. Since there were a fair number of Supras built and distributed worldwide, what are your current predictions on the future availability of aftermarket parts and price appreciation now that the 1982 model is now 25 years old?

Are older Japanese cars going to be the next big thing, if so, is that good or bad? Personally, I'd love to see some aftermarket high quality replacement parts.

[socalsupra]

its going to take a lot more than a magazine article to get some support for our cars. more like a presidential order.

[Greg G]

LOL hey I tried to do my part!!!

[spud3861]

In New Zealand the price of a decent Mk2 has gone up since I bought mine in 2001 for $1500. At that time there were a lot more still on the road.

Now, six years later, only a handful come up for sale each year, and average price I've seen is around $5000. My own example is much nice than the $5000 cars too.

Strangers offer to buy my car all the time. Easily once a week.

I think the future looks good as far as appreciation.

200th post :)

[pdupler]

I made a trip to visit to visit a guy who at the time was the president of an Opel GT Club here in the US. Reason, well, I kinda like them, plus, I figured that mk2 Supras and Opel GTs are a lot alike. They were built and sold in similar numbers over the same period of years. Just the Opel GTs were thirteen years earlier. I saw on a Speed channel show somebody said the Opel GT was like the Rodney Dangerfield of car collectors - lots of people like them, but they get "no respect." And, Opels, like Supras rusted like no tomorrow. The situation now for Opels is that there are SOME reproduction parts and aftermarket accessories, but mostly out of Europe where the Opel was made and has a more ardent following. The major source for Opel parts is trade among individual members of the clubs. I figure in just a few years, we are going to be in the same boat as the Opel owners. There will be SOME reproduction parts eventually, but not near enough to bring a basketcase back from the dead, so everyone preserve what you've got now. Unlike Camaros of the 60s, they just weren't popular enough, and even if they were, there aren't enough surviving examples to warrant reproduction of some of the more complicated and expensive parts.

However, as difficult as Supras are going to be to restore, I predict if you've got a really nice one, you can expect it to go up in value over the next 10 to 15 years. If history is repeated, then its about 40 years on that a particular car hits it heyday, valuewise. Thats the demographic factor. When a person retires and his kids move out of the house, and he has time and money to play, thats when he longs for the sports car that he wanted as a teen or young adult. Thats why the muscle cars of the 60s are the hottest things going right now.

Auto Restorer magazine in the last two years has had a number of feature articles on 70s cars and yes, even Japanese cars. Believe it or not, they featured a 75 Honda Civic on the cover as its CVCC was such a revolution in the automotive industry. The reason, according to the editor, is that they are getting fewer and fewer questions about the older cars and more and more questions about later models. At the grass-roots level, the editor says that most all of the viable candidates for restoration from the 60s and before, have already been restored. Middle-income hobbyists have become frustrated with the prices of Mustangs and Camaros, even basketcases bringing thousands of dollars. Instead, they are now turning to 70s era cars. First up are the special editions, highly-optioned and limited production cars. As those get gobbled up, then people will turn to the more "ordinary" versions of those special 70s cars and they will try to customize them to the level of the "specials". As the prices of 70s cars get out of hand, people will turn to the 80s cars and repeat the cycle. So, we're about 10 years out before it really starts for the mk2 and still probably 20 years to the plateau. Interestingly, the editor posed the question a few months ago, given the level of complexity and the throwaway design of many of the components, "will cars from the 90s be restored?" The readers responded overwhelmingly, despite the difficulty, YES. Readers simply said that they would have to learn new skills and adapt, but that indeed there are cars that they liked enough to do it when the time came.

As to price appreciation, I'm not sure what to expect. Most common muscle cars from the 60s which sold for $3,000 new now command easily $15,000 and much, much more for special editions and rare cars. Will we see a mk2 sell for $65,000 by the year 2022, I doubt it. Two reasons: One, I don't think we'll see double-digit inflation again like we did during the 70s and early 80s, and two, the Supra was the sports car icon of the baby-bust generation X, not the baby-boom generation. My conclusion, buy a nice mk2 now, keep it in a garage, treat it like a baby and in 20 years, you'll probably do at least as well as a money-market account and had a hell of a lot more fun than reading your financial statement.

[tiksman]

Hey all,
I see more value in the 80s cars now. With the gas crisis in the 70's and the cars being so underpowered I dont see much of a market. I had 2 Chargers a 75 and a 76. Everyone says wow a Charger but they were heavy, slow and a little ugly. I am not concerned with the value of my car in the future. I will pass it on to a responsible child of mine and as of now it is my unborn little girl. My 15 yr old son is not reliable at all and he is pissed I bought the car and did not spend the money on him. I hope the aftermarket picks up on our cars.

[Tomkat]

Since most of use love these cars because we are "cheap asses", I don't see much of a future.

[Austin E]

Since most of use love these cars because we are "cheap asses", I don't see much of a future.

I love my car because it was amazingly built and doesn't get any better for the money. Plus, i have spent $10,000 on my car, and haven't even made a dent, i don't think this community is all cheap asses bud.

[kvanderlaag]

But I think part of the appeal is that there is room to be a cheap ass regarding these cars and still come out okay. The very base level of maintenance isn't very expensive, and anything on top of that is just fun.

[Sparky]

Personally I don't see the Mk II becoming a huge collector car or significantly going up in the price. They mention the 240z, which has become worth quite a bit in good shape. However, look at the market for decent 260z or 280zs... they are dirt cheap in comparison. It has to really stand out in peoples minds to be super collectable. I've also seen it on the BMW side of things. 2002s are in demand, create cars, and worth some big money in good shape for a lightweight 4 wheel tub. E30s (84-91 3 series) are still commanding a pretty good value for their age, especially the later style with plastic bumpers (looks much more modern). However, E21s (77-83 320is) aren't worth much more than scrap (marketwise). A lot of people remember back when they owned one, or had a friend who owned one, but nobody wants one.

I think the only Supra with enough pull to become a 'classic' is the Mk IV (personal opinion). The others will still get praise, and go up in value from the name, but that's about it. I'd be amazed to see the average Mk II ever hit the value that 60s Mustang still command (about $6K for a good, solid non-restored running car)

[pdupler]

Nobody ever foresaw 50s and 60s station wagons to be collectible either, but just try to buy one today! They were considered disposable, many were cut up as donors for muscle car restorations, particularly El Camino and Ranchero projects which shared many components. Today, people a little older than myself remember going to the beach with mom and dad and sis and bbq'ing on the tailgate, and "Oh, wouldn't it be cool to go to Barrett Jackson and add a wagon to my collection just like we had when I was a kid!"

I would venture a guess that all the nay-sayers and pessimists are people who don't have a lot of money now, and worse, can't imagine themselves having a lot of money 20 years from now. Everyone on here loves Supras, right, so just fast forward yourself, imagine that your kids are all graduated from college and have good jobs, you've paid off your mortgage, you're the boss at work now and will be retiring with a nice nestegg in just a few more years. Like the Ginsu knife commercial asks "NOW how much would you pay?" Believe me, there will be more of us in that position than there will be Supras left to satisfy.

[Nogoodnik]

I think as the cars get older the old Mustang analogy might be fairly fitting. You'll be able to find them in varying conditions and for prices that reflect that range. I could be wrong though. The AE86 already seems to have an appeal and command sort of high prices. The Supra seems to be mistaken for too many other cars, like the Hachi Roku, Delorean(?) and Z-cars. It also doesn't help that even at a Toyota dealership people say "Hey, I used to have a Celica..." To which I reply, "Cool. How are those Celicas?" Mostly because I'm a jerk.

[socalsupra]

alot of asian products are starting to be in demand, just look at the old 2000 gt cars, if you can find one. to say that 20 years from now the MKII will be a icon? not too far fetched,

[SilverMk2]

You can't compare a 2000GT to a MkII. There was only maybe a few hundred 2000GT ever made vs several hundred thousand MkIIs worldwide.

IMO don't expect these cars to rapidly accelerate in value. The problem is they made way too many of them & they are all basically the same car. The other problem is they are kind of like 70s cars and were eclipsed by another generation of cars. Kind of like the 60s cars are way better than the smog era 70s cars are cars; MkII are eclipsed by the 90s and todays cars. I mean do you think anybody is going to car about 80s Corvettes when the ones they make today have twice the looks, power, handling, comfort, and everything else?

I know another gas crunch type thing is almost certain to happen again and new cars in the future are probably going to get smaller and less powerful (basically the 70s and 80s again). Todays 500hp Z06s and 600hp Vipers are going to be the 69 Camaros for the 20 years from now era when everybody is driving glorified golf carts. The problem even with those cars is they make so many of them.

The MkII is going to follow the Z-car route (after all they are 12 years ahead of us). Clean low mileage cream puffs will fetch above average price. Clean modded ones can get close to that. The rest will be $1500 cars. Some of the nicest early 70s 240z only bring 8-10k vs a 57 chevy you'll basically get a rusted out parts car for that.

[Phil G.]

I agree w/Aaron; they did make too many of these cars and they are all pretty much the same. Of course, it would be interesting to know how many quality MK2's are left and how many have rusted away.

My quandry: if I keep my car for 20 more years (like Phil D. suggests) - what am I going to do in terms of parts or even tires? Will Toyota keep making parts for these things? Based upon how hard it is to find 225/60/14s now, I'm almost assured that I'll have to replace the wheels at some point.

Restoring old muscle cars by comparison is easy with all the places that stock parts - Ames, NPD, Classic Industries, etc.

[auto_cran]

A very interesting thread here!

While I love the MKII, as well as other '80s cars (see my sig) I really don't think it will follow suit as the muscle cars from the '60s and '70s like the Mustang. No way.

Why?

Because in the '80s when the Supra was sold, it wasn't a hot ticket item like those other cars were.

Back in their day, Mustangs & Camaro's were THE cars to have. As a result, they made tons of them. Now, people want to relive those times - get back into the old Camaro, Mustang, Charger, etc....Thus creating a demand/market for these cars - making nice rare ones commanding high prices.

Who wants to get into a Supra? (gotta admit, we are a pretty small group here) While I get compliments on my car all the time, I also get a ton of people that have no idea what it is, or what engine it has, etc.... Everyone knows a Mustang/Camaro.

I always say, if a car wasn't a huge success when it was made, chances are good it's not gonna be a huge success in 20 years. Obvioulsy there are exceptions, but in general, it's pretty true.

In fact, if you look back in history - what regular production Japanese car can be considered a collectable and has gone way up in value? I can't think of any. Can you? (again, rule out the 2000GT - that wasn't regular production) Heck, even the Z-car hasn't been able to do that very well.

Just my thoughts... I still LOVE my MKII - regardless what it will ever be worth!

Chris
--------------------------------------
1986 Toyota Supra MKII
1983 Delorean DMC-12
1986 Pontiac Fiero GT
1989 Pontiac Turbo Trans Am #760 (1850 miles)
1988 Chevrolet Corvette 35th Anniversary #1941/2050
1985 Kawasaki Eliminator ZL900
( yeah - I'm stuck in the '80s )

[Supra GTR]

We will have to wait at least 30 years on the mk2 and 20 on the mkiv. That's my prediction. By 30 years.. all of these cars that are rusting away or ill received and ill kept will disappear. But the original production amount will have passed through enough hands for people to say "I remember when I used to own/drive one..." Then in the 30 years that have passed, only a few solid samples will be left. Worth a million? Probably not. $20K - $40K?.. certainly. A nicely modded mk2 with original engine may command $10K - $15K. I predict a solid mkiv turbo with original parts, hard top and rare color to fetch close to $100,000 to $250,000. Modded cars will still command over $50,000. (Look at the latest trends for G-Machines.)

The demand for the older mk2s will probably be due to excessive demand for the mkiv... reflecting current trends with the Supra as well as other pony/muscle cars.

In the meantime, I will enjoy my cars for what they are.

[Greg G]

In the meantime, I will enjoy my cars for what they are.

Amen to that!!!

[Junkie]

Agree with James and Greg. I'm into cars to enjoy them, do as I please .... Guess that makes it better for you Garage queen guys, as any I will ever own, will get modded.

I figure there will be a few pristene examples survive, and go for decent money, just because "it's a Supra".


But,I'd never consider a MKII an investment, for damn sure.

[pdupler]

Restoring old muscle cars by comparison is easy with all the places that stock parts - Ames, NPD, Classic Industries, etc.

Unless you are restoring an AMC Javelin or AMX.

I have to disagree tho that Toyota certainly didn't make too many of mk2s. Lets just indulge in a little demographic exercise..... US population stands at about 301 million people, of which about 21 million of us were high-school and college aged boys when the mk2 was Motor Trend's Import Car of the Year, when Chrysler Corporation was being bailed out of bankruptcy, and Ford and GM were producing the lowest quality cars in their history. Granted, most of that demographic is driving mini-vans and SUVs right now, but when they reach what might be called "financial maturity", they'll be after the sports cars of their youth.

In another long ago thread, we concluded that of the 120,000 sold there were probably about 15,000 mk2s left in the US today (our forum has wrecked or scrapped about 50 more of them ourselves since then). I would stick my neck out and guess that less than 1,000 are "collector quality" and probably no more than another 1,000 have the potential to be collector cars just because there aren't going to be the parts needed to bring them up to that level. Now I'm not talking "mint" or even absolutely "original", but rather just of similar quality to what you see among 60s muscle cars at the car shows today.

If history tells us anything, its that my Grandpa liked 1920s era cars, my dad liked 1950s era cars and I like 1980s era cars. Just go to any car show and look at the color and quantity of hair on car owners heads as compared to the age of their car and you'll see this is a remarkable phenomenon. Remember that manufacturers didn't just pull car designs out of their ass (well, some did), instead they spent millions of dollars on market research to figure out what the majority of their target demographic liked (young men in the case of sports cars). Then they spent millions more on advertising to brainwash the minority into liking the same thing. These likes/dislikes remain resident in memory and even tho your current preferences may have changed, you will still enjoy what you liked previously. If you wanted a Supra in 1983, you will still want one in 2023, even if you choose something else regardless of whatever reason.

Now assume that 10% of these 21 million guys (and Tanya) are financially well off enough so they go out and buy a classic car when they reach 55 years old. Thats 2,100,001 classic car collectors and I'm probably being way conservative. Sure, some of them will buy a 60s muscle car, but by then, muscle cars will have doubled in value again making them less affordable. Many will buy various other cars of other types and cars from other eras, but the phenomena of the influence of youth marketing and persistent desire will prevail. Most collectors don't restrict themselves to just one make/model, but will buy many different cars, even if all they can afford is one at a time. Eventually, most will at some point have something from their youth. Then when these collectors consider the other choices from their youthful era, the Supra will certainly float to the top. And even when you consider the surviving number of other cars from the era, fox bodied stangs, f-body gms, 300z's, etc, there's not going to be 200,000 collector sports cars left from that period, let alone 2 million. Heck, even if just the 125,000 original mk2 owners wanted another one, there'd be serious competition for the 2000 that are left.

How much will these people pay for a collectible mk2 then, I have no idea. But its a cinch that the market value of a mk2 will go up, and I predict, much faster and higher than those fox-bodied stangs of the same period. Now everyone else start thinking positive and keep repeating "My mk2 is going to be like a winning lottery ticket!" Prophesies have a way of becoming "self-fulfilling" if you believe in them.

[supraturbo85]

still got that magazine greg

[Greg G]

I hear what youre saying Phil, but since we're only speculating, heres my guess:

Our government will impose mandatory crushing of all fossil fuel powered vehicles long before any mk2 appreciates beyond its original MSRP.

We've alrady had a few people recently pony up strong money for pristine examples, and thats great for the breed, but Im definitely not expecting much in the way of financial return.

Enjoy em while you got em.

[Greg G]

still got that magazine greg

glad to hear it... better hang onto it ~ it might be worth more than the car someday :zzzzz:

[sowsley]

Phil D rocks, man. I like the way you are thinking. That's my take on it too, but I could never articulate it like you did.

To add to the mix: Most MKII's came similarly equipped. That being said, are there any rare variations in the US market versions? Rarity always adds to value and desireability. Would a premium be placed on the '82 since it won Import Car of the Year? or a later, more refined version?

I'm wondering if mods would increase or decrease the value? In spite of all of that, I plan on enjoying mine NOW. I'm a little over 50 and I won't be enjoying this car more when I'm 65, unless it's to look at it. It would be great to see more aftermarket support, though.

Steve

[Malibyte]

Definitely an interesting thread. As it's getting late, I'm not going to write a dissertation like Phil did, but I don't have to. He made some good points. The demographic angle is pretty right-on.

While I think that '56 Chevys are cool cars, I was too young to consider one when I was buying a car when I was in school...and I have no desire to buy one (even if the prices were reasonable). Most of the cars that were available new when I was in high school in the '70s were shitboxes and I didn't like 96% of 'em; it was just a bit too late for the muscle cars (though I could have had one used, but gas was getting expensive at that time). It came down to an early Celica vs the Ford Capri for me, since they were both so different from all the others...I wound up buying the Capri, mainly because I got a hell of a deal on it; it cost me about $1K less than the Celica would have, which was a lot of change back then (especially when the buyer was 16).

There are other factors driving prices of collector cars these days. Here in California, the prices of late '70s and early '80s collector cars was going up until the Governator killed the 30-year rolling smog exemption a couple of years ago. My dad has a '76 Celica that he wants to sell - if it was a '75 he could have sold it for a nice chunk of change. But since it's not smog exempt, it'd be a pain in the ass to mod it because of the smog laws. This issue is DEFINITELY pushing up the prices of pre-'76 cars here (I still have the Capri and can do ANYTHING to it and not have to deal with the smog Nazis) and is putting a damper on the later models. If this new bill goes through this month, mandating YEARLY smog tests for cars 15 years old and older (back to '76). this will make things even worse.

I certainly hope Greg is wrong....they'll crush my Supras over my dead body. What's more likely to happen is that they'll make it so difficult to keep older cars street-legal that the best ones will become museum pieces; they will be trailered to shows, and hardly ever driven.

Bob

[socalsupra]

you dont have to wait 20 years for a mkIV to fetch high prices, a low mile nice example goes for 100,XXX + all the time.

[Killer Squirrel]

I know, it's killing me. I really want a Mk4 for my daily driver but I refuse to pay out the ass for it.

[Greg G]

you dont have to wait 20 years for a mkIV to fetch high prices, a low mile nice example goes for 100,XXX + all the time.

Are you serious? I dont follow mk4 prices, and I cant believe a non-modified mk4 wld ever sell for 6 figures.

[SilverMk2]

I've never heard of heard of a MkIV ever getting that kind of dough, other than maybe that famous orange one. Best case is usually 70k or 80k. I think R Woons and SW cars have brought that kind of cash. You're talking like the top .01% of MkIV sales there. That's like a Mk2 bring 17 or 18k.

[Supra GTR]

Mkiv's don't command 6-figures. Someone may think his car is worth that.. but he will never get it. $60,000 easily.

Hell people wont even pay what I'm asking for mine. And the people that have their cars listed for $50,000 stock are not getting hits... just a bunch of tire kickers and joy riders.

[pdupler]

I'm wondering if mods would increase or decrease the value?
Steve

I'm going to stick my neck out again as I've thought about this issue alot. I think that a museum-quality out-of-the-factory car is always going to be the benchmark. Mods can take it up or down depending on quality and appropriateness. But I don't thing we need to be as concerned about originality as a muscle-car owner.

Since we didn't have a bunch of rare options like in the 60s, we shouldn't have to worry for instance about putting on aftermarket wheels. If you've thrown away your set of 14x7 p-type wheels, its not going to hurt your value as if you'd thrown away the 14x6 XG ralleys off your 67 Camaro (because thats what your broadcast sheet says its supposed to have). We ain't got no stinkin broadcast sheets! And, I think that since other forms of personalization such as stereo systems and body kits were actually popular in the 80s, that they will be "accepted" as legitimate so long as they are period-correct (i.e. a giant XPLOD speaker cut into the door panel is obviously 15 years out of place and will not appeal to the nostalgia buyers with the real money.) And lastly, since we didn't get six different engine options like back in the 60s, and the fact that engine output was woefully lacking in all cars during the same period, I think that buyers will be more forgiving of aftermarket performance parts and even engine swaps when it comes to 80s cars and the supra in particular.

I would expect that so long as mods don't detract from the nostalgia that people will feel for these cars, then I don't think they will hurt values. If they are tastefully done and quality workmanship and materials, they may even add a bit. Obviously, a hack job will always be just a hack job, tho.

[SupraFiend]

As for which mk2s will be worth the most, thats easy, just look what at what people want right now. The 85 and 86s with black/grey interiors always seem to be the most desired (which means Black and SDR cars), with the two tones of those years falling close behind. Those who love the early wings will gravitate towards 84s if they can get past the stripes, and then after that the 82s because they were the first year and have the odd desirable feature that changed in 83. 83s will be the least popular, except the black interiored 83s, which will probabaly be the most. LTypes will probably command higher prices too as they're so much rarer.

[Suprawilly85]

I have held onto these cars since I got my 1st one in 84. I've saved over 50 of them from the bone yards, had 12 of them (all in good to excellent shape) until recently when I decided to sell my business and move back home to take care of mom. I would keep them if I had a better place to keep them as I plan on keeping a few. I set my prices and the the buyer that knows the car paid it. One test drive and it was signing the title. I believe the MKII will continue to rise in value and will start bring original sticker prices by their 30th Birthday.

[rexgo]

Just saw in an ad in "Hexxings" that listed a 1982 Supra with ~ 28K miles - driven by a "little old Jewish lady" - asking price $7995